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GI_Forum 2021, Volume 9, Issue 112th International Symposium on Digital Earth
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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GI_Forum 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 13-23, 2021/06/29
12th International Symposium on Digital Earth
Defining spatial distribution of airborne volcanic ash in the neighbourhood of an erupting volcano is a synoptic scale problem, severely impacting lives and livelihoods. Robust algorithms are needed to model such complex phenomenon from sparse field data. This study investigated optimal modelling of the spatial dispersion of ash using Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK): a geostatistical, probabilistic algorithm. Both distance and ash temperature values of samples from the 2010 Icelandic eruption were spatially correlated using semivariograms to generate prediction and error surfaces. Results showed that block averages were 90% accurate as validated against NCEP NWP model data. The work supports the utility of EBK in datasets where spatial autocorrelation is not significant. Furthermore, the results could help generate risk maps to delineate safety zones for aircrafts.
Keywords: volcanic ash, kriging, geostatistics, spatial analysis